इसलिए, यदि बेरोजगारी की दर सामान्य से अधिक है, तो अर्थव्यवस्था को अपनी क्षमता से नीचे चलने के लिए माना जाता है और नीति निर्माता इसे उत्तेजित करने का प्रयास करेंगे। एक उत्तेजक मौद्रिक नीति कम ब्याज दरों को मजबूर करती है और डॉलर की मांग को कम करती है (पैसा कम पैदावार वाली मुद्रा से बाहर निकलता है)। यह कैसे काम करता है, यह जानने के लिए, हमारे लेख को देखें कैसे ब्याज दर विदेशी मुद्रा प्रभाव .

यूएस नॉन फार्म पेरोल ऐतिहासिक परिणाम

The earnings report and NFP numbers

IFC Markets

While earnings reports will be continued in the week ahead, BoE and RBA policy meetings and press conferences will also be the center of attention. Also, we should follow Powell and other FOMC members' speeches and wait for solid job data on Friday's NFP report. Let's take a look at the most important events of the week.

Earning reports.

Last week as we were expecting, new records have been printed in all Wallstreet indices, while it is going to be another week with another set of new records for stock markets. At the last week's Fed meeting, the central bank stayed committed to full employment NFP और विदेशी मुद्रा and interest rate goals. According to the latest Refinitiv data, so far, 303 companies from the S&P 500 list reported their earnings for Q1 2021, and 87.1% of them have beaten expectations. Last quarter the beating rate was about 76%. This week another 139 companies from the S&P 500 list will report, including

Uber, Pfizer, AIG, Lyft, AMC, and General Motors.

SP500 looks at 4,230 and 4,260 levels on its currently uptrend; however, profit taking by investors at these record levels can be the main risk at the moment for a correction under the 4,NFP और विदेशी मुद्रा 000 level.

NFP data on Friday

The week's event will surely be Friday's employment report, which is the FED's primary commitment at the moment. We are waiting for a 5.7% unemployment rate, down from 6% in March. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise 950k from a previous 916k. We expect profit-taking in stock markets and upbeat economic numbers. While treasure yields are also growing, the USD index due to grow above 91.20 level; however, technically, under 91.00 level, deeper numbers are expected to come into the spotlight.

Australian central bank Interest Rate Decision, Statement, and press conference will be on Tuesday. No change is expected in its rates and NFP और विदेशी मुद्रा monetary policy until a target inflation rate between 2 and 3% will be achieved. While from NFP और विदेशी मुद्रा the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, we expect to lower the stimulus and ease on bond purchases level at its meeting as GBPUSD Outlook. Britain's economy is strongly recovering from the worst recession of the past 300 years. In the February meeting, the BoE forecast the economy to grow 5% this year after a 10% contraction of the past year. With the expecting decision of BoE and USD growth, we are expecting more downtrend under the 1.38 level for cable.

NFP, Earnings, and Central banks!

IFC Markets

After Federal Reserve, now it is the BoE, ECB and RBA turn to hold their monetary policy meeting. However, OPEC meeting and the US labor market data also must be watched closely in line with other important data, including employment data from Canada and NZ, and European CPI & GDP. In the financial markets, still, earnings reports are continuing and, as you know, we are waiting for more companies to publish their reports in the week ahead, while we should not forget about global geopolitical tensions.

Reserve Bank of Australia – Tuesday

While Monday, and Tuesday, most Asian markets will be closed due to the Chinese New NFP और विदेशी मुद्रा Year, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its policy and interest rate decision meeting on Tuesday. The Australian Labor market is well growing with unemployment at 4.2%. Therefore, with inflation at 3.5%, now pressures on RBA are getting more to start increasing the rates. However, despite all improvements and speculations, it is still expected to stay on hold. But to mention in NFP और विदेशी मुद्रा the announcement that they are ready to take the step in near future. That must still hold the pressure on the Australian Dollar.

As last week's European PMI data showed, Omicron's concerns in January affected the Manufacturing and service activities. For the United States, now we are expecting to see a bit weaker numbers. Consensus expectations for the ISM manufacturing index are to decline to 57.5 in January, and the ISM services index to fall to 59.3. These NFP और विदेशी मुद्रा expected data should not be supportive of the US dollar.

Bank of England – Thursday

It was the first G7 member that increased the rates, and now we are expecting that BoE to stay hold and wait for more market adjustment to take a new step. The BoE already lifted the interest rate by 15bp to 0.25% in December. And despite the increasing inflation to 5.4%, still, the economy is suffering in its recovery path, therefore MPC members would like to wait at least until February meeting for the expected 25bp rate hike to 0.50%. If as expected, the Central bank in the United Kingdom makes a noncombative decision and does not do unexpected movements, British Pound still must be under pressure!

On the same day with BoE, the European central bank also will hold its monetary policy meeting. It is a long time that market participants and investors are waiting to see the ECB's reaction to the NFP और विदेशी मुद्रा increasing inflation. ECB PEPP program is supposed to end in March and they are planning to increase the APP pace through the second and third quarters, and now it seems the time to be a bit stricter. Therefore, expecting to see a 10bp rate hike sounds plausible. If the ECB increases the rates, then at least for the short term we can see the Euro in a bit stronger position, and if not, weakness can continue through February as well.

US employment data - Friday

Three times out of the past four reports, we missed the None Farm Payroll estimated numbers. Now analysts decreased their expectations to 155,000 Jobs in January due to ongoing labor shortages, while JOLT's numbers are still way above 10 Million. In the last months, household employment increased and lowered the unemployment rate down to 3.9%. In this report, besides the unemployment rate that we are waiting to see unchanged at 3.9%, we have to closely watch the average earnings and participant’s rate as well. Considering the lower estimate, beating the expectations is likely, therefore we can see the stronger USD before ending the week.

According to Refinitiv, so far, 168 companies of the S&P 500 have reported, and 77% of them have beaten estimates, therefore the January effect is still positive, and we can be optimist for the rest of the year. While Apple lifted the markets with almost 7% gain after the positive report, in the week ahead, we have more important reports to watch. Google, Exxon Mobil, PayPal, and AMD on Tuesday will heat the markets, Facebook, Alibaba and eBay will be in the spotlight on Wednesday, and Amazon, Royal Dutch, Honeywell, and Eli Lilly's reports on Thursday will be the most important earnings reports to follow.

गैर-कृषि पेरोल रिलीज की तारीखें

श्रम सांख्यिकी ब्यूरो 8: 30 AM NFP और विदेशी मुद्रा NFP और विदेशी मुद्रा ET पर आम तौर पर प्रत्येक महीने के पहले शुक्रवार को NFP डेटा जारी करता है। रिलीज की तारीखों पर पाया जा सकता है श्रम सांख्यिकी की वेबसाइट ब्यूरो .

एनएफपी रिलीज की अस्थिर प्रकृति के कारण, हम एक का उपयोग करने की सलाह देते हैं पुल-बैक रणनीति एक ब्रेकआउट रणनीति के बजाय। पुलबैक रणनीति का उपयोग करना, t राडर्स को मुद्रा जोड़ी के वापस लौटने का इंतजार करना चाहिए एक व्यापार में प्रवेश करने से पहले।

ऊपर के रूप में एक ही उदाहरण का उपयोग करना (NFP परिणाम 20k बनाम 180k अपेक्षित) हम उम्मीद करते हैं कि अमेरिकी डॉलर मूल्यह्रास करेगा। नीचे दिए गए उदाहरण में, हम उपयोग करते हैं यूरो / अमरीकी डालर । चूँकि NFP का डेटा अपेक्षा से अधिक खराब हो गया था, हम सराहना करने के लिए EUR / USD का अनुमान लगाते हैं।

EUR / USD NFP डेटा पुलबैक रणनीति

एनएफपी डेटा रिलीज ट्रेडिंग: शीर्ष युक्तियाँ और आगे पढ़ने

अपने विदेशी मुद्रा व्यापार को सूचित करने के लिए NFP डेटा रिलीज़ का उपयोग करते समय याद रखने के लिए कुछ सुझाव दिए गए हैं:

  1. एनएफपी डेटा हर महीने के पहले शुक्रवार को जारी किया जाता है।
  2. एनएफपी डेटा रिलीज में वृद्धि की अस्थिरता और चौड़ीकरण के साथ है।
  3. अमेरिकी डॉलर से संबंधित मुद्रा जोड़े भी बढ़ी हुई अस्थिरता और व्यापक प्रसार को नहीं देख सकते थे।
  4. एनएफ़टी डेटा रिलीज़ ट्रेडिंग अस्थिरता में वृद्धि और स्प्रेड के संभावित चौड़ीकरण के कारण खतरनाक हो सकती है। इससे निपटने के लिए, और रुकने से बचने के लिए, हम उपयोग करने की सलाह देते हैं उपयुक्त उत्तोलन , या कोई लाभ नहीं है।

देखने के लिए अन्य महत्वपूर्ण डेटा रिलीज़:

जबकि एनएफपी आम तौर पर बाजार को स्थानांतरित करता है, जैसे डेटा भाकपा (मुद्रास्फीति), फेड फंड की दरें और जीडीपी वृद्धि महत्वपूर्ण डेटा रिलीज़ भी हैं।

आगे विदेशी मुद्रा बुनियादी बातों पर पढ़ना

यदि आप अभी-अभी अपनी व्यापारिक यात्रा शुरू कर रहे हैं, तो हमारे विदेशी मुद्रा व्यापार की मूल बातों से परिचित हों विदेशी मुद्रा व्यापार गाइड के लिए नया।

हम विदेशी मुद्रा बाजार में केंद्रीय बैंकों की भूमिका के बारे में और अधिक जानने की सलाह देते हैं, और क्या केंद्रीय बैंक के हस्तक्षेप शामिल है।

डेलीएफएक्स का उपयोग करें आर्थिक कैलेंडर केंद्रीय बैंक के भाषणों और ब्याज दर डेटा सहित सभी महत्वपूर्ण आर्थिक डेटा रिलीज़ पर नज़र रखने के लिए। हमारे बुकमार्क करने NFP और विदेशी मुद्रा के लिए मत भूलना सेंट्रल बैंक दरें कैलेंडर इसलिए आप नियमित घोषणाओं के लिए तैयारी कर सकते हैं।

रेटिंग: 4.55
अधिकतम अंक: 5
न्यूनतम अंक: 1
मतदाताओं की संख्या: 447